How to Trust Your Judgment After Getting It Wrong

When a choice goes badly, it’s tempting to revise your opinion of your whole judgment. Suppose you lend someone a tool and he keeps putting off returning it. You have learned something about lending to him again. To learn what the choice says about your judgment, you have to look at the reasons you had when you made it.

First, ask what you had reason to believe at the time. If the man had already failed to return two things and you ignored that because you disliked saying no, you’ve found a particular mistake. Give his record more weight the next time. If he had always kept his word with you and gave you no reason to expect this, the result still matters. It tells you something about lending to him again. It tells you far less about whether the original decision was foolish.

Now look at the terms of the choice. You might be willing to lend a spare drill to somebody you know only a little. The same evidence may be too thin for lending the only tool you need to finish a paying job. You can improve your judgment by asking more of the evidence when the cost of being wrong rises.

Trusting your judgment includes trusting yourself to revise it. You can say, “I overlooked his record,” or “I took a reasonable chance and learned something new.” Either statement leaves you with something you can use. “I can’t trust myself” leaves you with the same decisions tomorrow and no better way to make them.